Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Polymarket is 49 points higher than Kalshi (60% vs 11%). Polymarket trades about 197.8× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 60% | 11% |
| Change (24h) | +2.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $30.4K | $154 |
| Total volume | $54.9K | $9.6K |
| Liquidity | $61.5K | — |
| Open interest | — | $5.4K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 3 hours | 28 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.