Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?
Vol $71.4K today · $82.5K total
Polymarket is 7 points higher than Kalshi (19% vs 12%). Polymarket trades about 24.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 19% | 12% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +1.5 pt |
| Volume today | $71.4K | $3K |
| Total volume | $82.5K | $12.4K |
| Liquidity | $57.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $6.4K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 21 hours | 28 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.