Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Polymarket is 37 points higher than Kalshi (47% vs 11%). Polymarket trades about 121.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Apr 1 vs Dec 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 47% | 11% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $13.8K | $114 |
| Total volume | $23K | $9.6K |
| Liquidity | $34.1K | — |
| Open interest | — | $5.4K |
| Resolves | 5mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 4 hours | 28 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.