Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Draymond Green announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season?
Vol $83 today · $301 total
Kalshi is 52 points higher than Polymarket (61% vs 9%). Kalshi trades about 9.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 6 vs Nov 15), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 9% | 61% |
| Change (24h) | -41.5 pt | -0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $9 | $83 |
| Total volume | $9 | $301 |
| Liquidity | $1.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $187 |
| Resolves | 7h | 25mo |
| Tracked for | 4 hours | 27 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming NBA game between Heat and Warriors, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Draymond Green records more than 9.5 assists during the game. This market will resolve to "No" if Draymond Green records 9.5 assists or fewer during the game. The entire game including all overtime periods will be considered. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the court at any point, the market will resolve "No". The resolution source will be the official NBA box score as published on NBA.com.
Kalshi
If Draymond Green announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2028-29 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.