Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 1 points higher than Polymarket (2% vs 0%). Kalshi trades about 2.1× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Dec 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 2% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | -2.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $847 | $408 |
| Total volume | $1.1K | $27.4K |
| Liquidity | — | $16.1K |
| Open interest | $1.1K | — |
| Resolves | 51mo | 54d |
| Tracked for | 41 hours | 5 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Joe Neguse is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. Only a person officially announced to play James Bond in a theatrical/feature film production will count toward resolution. Casting for other formats, including video games, voice or motion-capture roles in games, television, advertisements, or spin-off media, will not not qualify. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.