Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Vol $207 today · $5K total
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?
Vol $1 today · $18.5K total
Kalshi is 3 points higher than Polymarket (5% vs 2%). Polymarket trades about 207.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 2% | 5% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -1.5 pt |
| Volume today | $207 | $1 |
| Total volume | $5K | $18.5K |
| Liquidity | $13K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.9K |
| Resolves | 57d | 57d |
| Tracked for | 7 hours | 27 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Ukraine holds a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.