Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?
Vol $5.4K today · $39.2K total
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington House District 10, Position 2 election?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Kalshi is 89 points higher than Polymarket (92% vs 3%). They resolve on different dates (Nov 4 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 3% | 92% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | +0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $5.4K | $0 |
| Total volume | $39.2K | $0 |
| Liquidity | $16.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | — | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 43 hours | 6 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will…
Kalshi
If the Democratic Party wins the 2028 general election for Washington House District 10, Position 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.