Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 80% by March 31?
Vol $40 today · $40 total
Will the Democratic party win the Presidency in 2032?
Vol $202 today · $388 total
Kalshi is 44 points higher than Polymarket (50% vs 6%). Kalshi trades about 5× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Apr 1 vs Nov 2), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 6% | 50% |
| Change (24h) | -44.5 pt | +0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $40 | $202 |
| Total volume | $40 | $388 |
| Liquidity | $10.2K | — |
| Open interest | — | $265 |
| Resolves | 5mo | 85mo |
| Tracked for | 41 hours | 27 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds 80% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Democratic Party's hourly odds value is below 80% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Democratic Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing before April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Democratic Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds…
Kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.