Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Jun 30, 2028?
Vol $1 today · $201 total
Polymarket is 25 points higher than Kalshi (40% vs 15%). They resolve on different dates (Nov 10 vs Jun 30), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 40% | 15% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +1.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $1 |
| Total volume | $0 | $201 |
| Liquidity | $1.2K | — |
| Open interest | — | $201 |
| Resolves | 5d | 20mo |
| Tracked for | 46 hours | 27 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Kalshi
If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $10,000 at any point after Issuance and before Jun 30, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.