Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?
Vol $7.1K today · $13.8K total
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Senate District 14 election?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Kalshi is 67 points higher than Polymarket (73% vs 6%). They resolve on different dates (Nov 4 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 6% | 73% |
| Change (24h) | +2.2 pt | +22.5 pt |
| Volume today | $7.1K | $0 |
| Total volume | $13.8K | $0 |
| Liquidity | $45.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 27h | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 26 hours | 3 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin …
Kalshi
If the Democratic Party wins the 2028 general election for Washington Senate District 14, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.