Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Wyoming House District 2 election?
Vol $20 today · $20 total
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?
Vol $55.8K today · $153.5K total
Kalshi is 95 points higher than Polymarket (97% vs 1%). Polymarket trades about 2762.7× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 7 vs Nov 4), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 97% | 1% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -69.1 pt |
| Volume today | $20 | $55.8K |
| Total volume | $20 | $153.5K |
| Liquidity | — | $17K |
| Open interest | $5 | — |
| Resolves | 37mo | — |
| Tracked for | 4 days | 7 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Wyoming House District 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.