Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Ilija Srdanović become Prime Minister of Serbia following the next Serbian general election?
Vol $673 today · $1.6K total
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?
Vol $7.6K today · $332.1K total
Kalshi is 5 points higher than Polymarket (17% vs 12%). Polymarket trades about 11.3× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Dec 31 vs Oct 25), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 17% | 12% |
| Change (24h) | -0.5 pt | -1.5 pt |
| Volume today | $673 | $7.6K |
| Total volume | $1.6K | $332.1K |
| Liquidity | — | $203.2K |
| Open interest | $643 | — |
| Resolves | 27mo | 28h |
| Tracked for | 13 days | 15 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Ilija Srdanović becomes Prime Minister of Serbia as a result of government formation following the next Serbian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.