Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Vol $107.9K today · $1.3M total
Will Santiago Abascal become Prime Minister of Spain following the next Spanish general election?
Vol $229 today · $8.1K total
Polymarket is 65 points higher than Kalshi (69% vs 4%). Polymarket trades about 471.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 25 vs Aug 22), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 69% | 4% |
| Change (24h) | +1.3 pt | -1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $107.9K | $229 |
| Total volume | $1.3M | $8.1K |
| Liquidity | $200.5K | — |
| Open interest | — | $6.2K |
| Resolves | 2d | 22mo |
| Tracked for | 14 days | 14 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Kalshi
If Santiago Abascal becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.