Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Polymarket is 66 points higher than Kalshi (82% vs 16%). Polymarket trades about 38.4× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 12 vs Jan 15), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 82% | 16% |
| Change (24h) | +32.0 pt | -0.6 pt |
| Volume today | $41.1K | $1.1K |
| Total volume | $39.9K | $251.8K |
| Liquidity | $110.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $45.9K |
| Resolves | 3d | 51mo |
| Tracked for | 10 days | 31 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Czechia and Spain, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If Spain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the awarded result, regardless of the score as played. If no such result is awarded and the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the po…
Kalshi
If Spain is the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.