Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Vol $364.4K today · $21.5M total
Polymarket is 76 points higher than Kalshi (77% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 2.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 5 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 77% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | +0.3 pt | +0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $364.4K | $167.4K |
| Total volume | $21.5M | $824.7K |
| Liquidity | $539K | — |
| Open interest | — | $651K |
| Resolves | — | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 9 days | 9 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Kalshi
If Nikki Haley is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.