Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Addison-5 election?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Both markets price this about the same, around 50%. They resolve on different dates (Nov 8 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 50% | 50% |
| Change (24h) | +3.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $0 |
| Total volume | $0 | $0 |
| Liquidity | $2K | — |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 25mo | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 38 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2028 United States general election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2028 general election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2028 United States general election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 121st Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents canno…
Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Vermont House Addison-5, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.