Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Compare markets
See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 5 points higher than Polymarket (11% vs 6%). Kalshi trades about 15.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Apr 1 vs Dec 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 6% | 11% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $49 | $779 |
| Total volume | $49 | $9.5K |
| Liquidity | $44.7K | — |
| Open interest | — | $5.3K |
| Resolves | 5mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 5 hours | 20 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Share this comparison
Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.