Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Vol $832 today · $18.6M total
Will Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket?
Vol $19 today · $21.1K total
Both markets price this about the same, around 9%. Polymarket trades about 43× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 9% | 8% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $832 | $19 |
| Total volume | $18.6M | $21.1K |
| Liquidity | $363.9K | — |
| Open interest | — | $10.5K |
| Resolves | 25mo | 25mo |
| Tracked for | 9 days | 9 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Kalshi
If the Democratic presidential nominee is Gavin Newsom AND the Democratic vice presidential nominee is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.