Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 23 points higher than Polymarket (48% vs 26%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 29 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 26% | 48% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $13.4K | $0 |
| Total volume | $13.4K | $0 |
| Liquidity | $42.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 4h | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 8 hours | 22 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the NHL game, scheduled for October 28 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kraken" if the Kraken win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Kalshi
If Kraken confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.