Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?
Vol $56.1K today · $56.4K total
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?
Vol $27 today · $227.9K total
Polymarket is 13 points higher than Kalshi (59% vs 47%). Polymarket trades about 2076.6× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 27 vs Jan 20), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 59% | 47% |
| Change (24h) | -14.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $56.1K | $27 |
| Total volume | $56.4K | $227.9K |
| Liquidity | $7.7K | — |
| Open interest | — | $48.1K |
| Resolves | — | 27mo |
| Tracked for | 5 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas on October 27, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-lubbock-texas-president-donald-j-trump-djt47) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas on October 27, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Kalshi
If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.