Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Nov 1, 2026?
Vol $203 today · $20.6K total
Polymarket is 3 points higher than Kalshi (4% vs 1%). Kalshi trades about 6.8× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Nov 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 4% | 1% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $30 | $203 |
| Total volume | $5.4K | $20.6K |
| Liquidity | $19.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $5.8K |
| Resolves | 64d | 3d |
| Tracked for | 15 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.