Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
Vol $23.5K today · $11.4M total
Kalshi is 12 points higher than Polymarket (16% vs 3%). Kalshi trades about 65400.4× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 3% | 16% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $23.5K |
| Total volume | $43.2K | $11.4M |
| Liquidity | $43.4K | — |
| Open interest | — | $5.2M |
| Resolves | 65d | 25mo |
| Tracked for | 12 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.