Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027?
Vol $27 today · $34.3K total
Kalshi is 1 points higher than Polymarket (5% vs 3%). Polymarket trades about 871.6× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 3% | 5% |
| Change (24h) | +0.1 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $23.5K | $27 |
| Total volume | $52.3K | $34.3K |
| Liquidity | $83.2K | — |
| Open interest | — | $12.3K |
| Resolves | 65d | 65d |
| Tracked for | 11 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.