Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Compare markets
See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Vol $16.8K today · $19K total
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress?
Vol $12 today · $1.7K total
Kalshi is 7 points higher than Polymarket (8% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 1397.6× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 30 vs Feb 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 8% |
| Change (24h) | -0.3 pt | -1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $16.8K | $12 |
| Total volume | $19K | $1.7K |
| Liquidity | $18.7K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.4K |
| Resolves | 34d | 28mo |
| Tracked for | 6 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Kalshi
If the Democratic party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Share this comparison
Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.