Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Ofer Winter receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Vol $0 today · $673 total
Kalshi is 10 points higher than Polymarket (10% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 28 vs Oct 28), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 10% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +3.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $19 |
| Total volume | $673 | $328 |
| Liquidity | $21.7K | — |
| Open interest | — | $86 |
| Resolves | — | 49mo |
| Tracked for | 9 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Ofer Winter is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.