Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Democratic Reform Party win the next Japanese general election?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Vol $11.2K today · $15.6K total
Polymarket is 56 points higher than Kalshi (66% vs 11%). They resolve on different dates (Feb 7 vs May 2), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 11% | 66% |
| Change (24h) | -39.5 pt | +6.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $11.2K |
| Total volume | $0 | $15.6K |
| Liquidity | — | $53.5K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 52mo | 6mo |
| Tracked for | 24 hours | 19 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Democratic Reform Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.