Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Renan Santos win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?
Vol $68 today · $640 total
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Vol $30.8K today · $1.4M total
Polymarket is 61 points higher than Kalshi (68% vs 7%). Polymarket trades about 452.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 27 vs Nov 8), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 7% | 68% |
| Change (24h) | +4.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $68 | $30.8K |
| Total volume | $640 | $1.4M |
| Liquidity | — | $368.5K |
| Open interest | $68 | — |
| Resolves | 61mo | 24mo |
| Tracked for | 10 days | 5 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Renan Santos wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.