Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?
Vol $27 today · $32.3K total
Kalshi is 51 points higher than Polymarket (90% vs 40%). Polymarket trades about 255.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 40% | 90% |
| Change (24h) | -25.5 pt | -2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $6.8K | $27 |
| Total volume | $7K | $32.3K |
| Liquidity | $44.2K | — |
| Open interest | — | $21.5K |
| Resolves | 8mo | 8mo |
| Tracked for | 21 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.