Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Mizuho take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?
Vol $0 today · $2.5K total
Kalshi is 75 points higher than Polymarket (75% vs 0%).
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 75% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +22.5 pt |
| Volume today | $3.6K | $0 |
| Total volume | $11.9K | $2.5K |
| Liquidity | $6.7K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.3K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 13 hours | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
An official announcement from Anthropic that it will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market. If a ticker used by Anthropic in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if Anthropic uses a ticker symbol of $ANTH.A or $ANTHA, this market will resolve to $ANTH). If Anthropic announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $ANTH.A and $ANTH.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until Anthropic's first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order. If Anthropic IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the primary exchange's official listing page.…
Kalshi
If Mizuho serves as a lead underwriter for Anthropic's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.