Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will The Democrats win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Vol $12.1K today · $24.1K total
Will Democratic Reform Party win the next Japanese general election?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Kalshi is 10 points higher than Polymarket (11% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 28 vs Feb 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 11% |
| Change (24h) | -0.2 pt | -39.5 pt |
| Volume today | $12.1K | $0 |
| Total volume | $24.1K | $0 |
| Liquidity | $28.7K | — |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | — | 52mo |
| Tracked for | 47 hours | 23 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-ele…
Kalshi
If Democratic Reform Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.