Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?
Vol $63K today · $64.9K total
Polymarket is 22 points higher than Kalshi (33% vs 12%). Polymarket trades about 1574.4× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 33% | 12% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | +1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $63K | $40 |
| Total volume | $64.9K | $8.7K |
| Liquidity | $26.1K | — |
| Open interest | — | $4.6K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 42 hours | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.