Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?
Vol $20.6K today · $55K total
Will the Republican party win the House, the Republican party win the Senate, and the Republican party win the Presidency?
Vol $10 today · $109.6K total
Polymarket is 54 points higher than Kalshi (68% vs 14%). Polymarket trades about 1994.4× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 4 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 68% | 14% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | +3.0 pt |
| Volume today | $20.6K | $10 |
| Total volume | $55K | $109.6K |
| Liquidity | $86.9K | — |
| Open interest | — | $61.3K |
| Resolves | 8d | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 39 hours | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Kalshi
If the Republican party wins the House, the Republican party wins the Senate, and the Republican party wins the Presidency in the 2028 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.