Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Vol $72.6K today · $137.7K total
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Kalshi is 5 points higher than Polymarket (6% vs 1%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 26 vs Oct 27), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 1% | 6% |
| Change (24h) | +0.3 pt | +1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $72.6K | $0 |
| Total volume | $137.7K | $0 |
| Liquidity | $23.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | — | 61mo |
| Tracked for | 2 days | 11 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Kalshi
If Michelle Bolsonaro wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.