Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
Vol $4.6K today · $14.7K total
Kalshi is 37 points higher than Polymarket (37% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 151.8× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 5 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 37% |
| Change (24h) | -0.1 pt | +9.0 pt |
| Volume today | $4.6K | $30 |
| Total volume | $14.7K | $10.3K |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $6.9K |
| Resolves | 8d | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 45 hours | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.
Kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arizona for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.