Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?
Vol $57.6K today · $82.8K total
Will PSB win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?
Vol $185 today · $185 total
Kalshi is 8 points higher than Polymarket (8% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 311.6× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 26 vs Oct 27), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 8% |
| Change (24h) | -0.1 pt | -42.5 pt |
| Volume today | $57.6K | $185 |
| Total volume | $82.8K | $185 |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $83 |
| Resolves | — | 61mo |
| Tracked for | 2 days | 11 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Othe…
Kalshi
If PSB wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.