Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
Vol $117.1K today · $138.7K total
Will Max Verstappen announce his retirement before the 2029 F1 season?
Vol $51 today · $871 total
Kalshi is 46 points higher than Polymarket (46% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 2291.1× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Nov 1 vs Apr 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 46% |
| Change (24h) | -0.1 pt | -2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $117.1K | $51 |
| Total volume | $138.7K | $871 |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $513 |
| Resolves | 5d | 42mo |
| Tracked for | 2 days | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Nov 1, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Kalshi
If Max Verstappen announces his retirement from F1 before the 2029 F1 season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.