Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Polymarket is 97 points higher than Kalshi (100% vs 3%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 31 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 100% | 3% |
| Change (24h) | +50.0 pt | +0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $0 |
| Total volume | $0 | $1.8K |
| Liquidity | $2K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.6K |
| Resolves | 3d | 100mo |
| Tracked for | 4 days | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has co…
Kalshi
If the President of Rwanda is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.