Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will any part of Cuba be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?
Vol $388 today · $269K total
Polymarket is 3 points higher than Kalshi (7% vs 5%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 24 vs Jan 20), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 7% | 5% |
| Change (24h) | +2.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $388 |
| Total volume | $0 | $269K |
| Liquidity | $1.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $107.8K |
| Resolves | — | 27mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 6:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Colorado State" if Colorado State win the game by 21 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Diego State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.