Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Compare markets
See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Alexander Volkanovski to be Featherweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027
Vol $564 today · $6.9K total
Kalshi is 39 points higher than Polymarket (44% vs 5%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 25 vs Dec 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 5% | 44% |
| Change (24h) | -1.0 pt | +9.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $564 |
| Total volume | $0 | $6.9K |
| Liquidity | $1.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $3.4K |
| Resolves | — | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexander Volkanovski defeats Movsar Evloev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 3, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed. If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Kalshi
If Alexander Volkanovski is the UFC Featherweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Share this comparison
Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.