Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 10 points higher than Polymarket (11% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 24 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 11% |
| Change (24h) | -1.7 pt | -0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $6.9K | $0 |
| Total volume | $6.9K | $0 |
| Liquidity | $66.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | $0 |
| Resolves | — | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 4 days | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming Premier League game between Aston Villa FC and Manchester City FC, scheduled for October 24 at 7:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Aston Villa FC and Manchester City FC combine to score 8 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution w…
Kalshi
If the English Premier League imposes a sanction stripping at least 6 title(s) across Premier League, FA Cup, or League Cup on Manchester City, as officially announced before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.