Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Merab Dvalishvili to be Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027
Vol $9 today · $782 total
Kalshi is 9 points higher than Polymarket (12% vs 3%). Polymarket trades about 3.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 25 vs Dec 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 3% | 12% |
| Change (24h) | -2.4 pt | -6.0 pt |
| Volume today | $33 | $9 |
| Total volume | $33 | $782 |
| Liquidity | $1.9K | — |
| Open interest | — | $572 |
| Resolves | — | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 17 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Merab Dvalishvili defeats Petr Yan at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 3, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed. If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Kalshi
If Merab Dvalishvili is the UFC Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.