Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?
Vol $6 today · $5.5K total
Kalshi is 41 points higher than Polymarket (81% vs 40%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 24 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 40% | 81% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $6 |
| Total volume | $0 | $5.5K |
| Liquidity | $3.1K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.9K |
| Resolves | — | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 17 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the second half of the college football game between Tennessee and South Carolina, scheduled for October 24 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if South Carolina outscore Tennessee by 3 or more points in the second half. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tennessee". Points scored in the second half and in any overtime count toward this market. First-half points are not included. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.