Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?
Vol $21 today · $5.5K total
Kalshi is 27 points higher than Polymarket (81% vs 54%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 24 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 54% | 81% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $21 |
| Total volume | $0 | $5.5K |
| Liquidity | $4.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.9K |
| Resolves | — | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 16 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the first half of the college football game between Tennessee and South Carolina, scheduled for October 24 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if South Carolina score 13 or more points in the first half. If South Carolina score less than 13 points in the first half, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on South Carolina's score, not the combined score of both teams. Only points scored during that period count; overtime is not included. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.