Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on October 24?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Will New York City experience population change between 0.01% and 0.99% during 2025-2027?
Vol $0 today · $14.7K total
Kalshi is 5 points higher than Polymarket (40% vs 35%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 24 vs Jun 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 35% | 40% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $0 |
| Total volume | $0 | $14.7K |
| Liquidity | $2.5K | — |
| Open interest | — | $5.7K |
| Resolves | — | 19mo |
| Tracked for | 4 days | 17 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature reported at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) on 24 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either…
Kalshi
If the population change in New York City is between 0.01% and 0.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.