Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2027 be above 10.0 million?
Vol $10 today · $10 total
Polymarket is 58 points higher than Kalshi (78% vs 20%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 23 vs Jan 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 78% | 20% |
| Change (24h) | -17.5 pt | +2.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $10 |
| Total volume | $0 | $10 |
| Liquidity | $3.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | $10 |
| Resolves | 16h | 16mo |
| Tracked for | 11 hours | 13 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming NFL game between Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Bears score 11 or more points in this game. If the Bears score less than 11 points, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on the Bears's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2027 are above 10.0 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.