Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Vol $19.9K today · $18M total
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
Vol $11K today · $5.7M total
Kalshi is 17 points higher than Polymarket (18% vs 1%).
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 1% | 18% |
| Change (24h) | -0.1 pt | +1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $19.9K | $11K |
| Total volume | $18M | $5.7M |
| Liquidity | $762.4K | — |
| Open interest | — | $2.5M |
| Resolves | 25mo | 25mo |
| Tracked for | 8 days | 8 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Kalshi
If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.