Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Vol $30.5K today · $296.9K total
Polymarket is 21 points higher than Kalshi (22% vs 2%). Polymarket trades about 130.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 27 vs Nov 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 22% | 2% |
| Change (24h) | -16.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $30.5K | $234 |
| Total volume | $296.9K | $2.1M |
| Liquidity | $65.5K | — |
| Open interest | — | $2M |
| Resolves | 24h | 37mo |
| Tracked for | 5 days | 16 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Kalshi
If Rahm Emanuel is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.