Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season?
Vol $44 today · $7.8K total
Kalshi is 42 points higher than Polymarket (42% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 87.3× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 20 vs Nov 15), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 42% |
| Change (24h) | -41.0 pt | +3.5 pt |
| Volume today | $3.9K | $44 |
| Total volume | $5.1K | $7.8K |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $2.1K |
| Resolves | — | 13mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 14 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 20 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if LeBron James records more than 7.5 assists during the game. This market will resolve to "No" if LeBron James records 7.5 assists or fewer during the game. The entire game including all overtime periods will be considered. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the court at any point, the market will resolve "No". The resolution source will be the official NBA box score as published on NBA.com.
Kalshi
If LeBron James announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2027-28 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.