Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Vol $0 today · $16.3K total
Will Pedro Sánchez become Prime Minister of Spain following the next Spanish general election?
Vol $2K today · $10K total
Kalshi is 19 points higher than Polymarket (19% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Apr 1 vs Aug 22), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 19% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $2K |
| Total volume | $16.3K | $10K |
| Liquidity | $85.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | $6.8K |
| Resolves | 18mo | 22mo |
| Tracked for | 14 days | 14 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.