Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Manchester City EPL points deduction before Jan 1, 2028
Vol $14 today · $14 total
Polymarket is 34 points higher than Kalshi (100% vs 67%). Polymarket trades about 202.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 20 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 100% | 67% |
| Change (24h) | +52.0 pt | -1.0 pt |
| Volume today | $2.9K | $14 |
| Total volume | $3.1K | $14 |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $14 |
| Resolves | — | 15mo |
| Tracked for | 2 days | 13 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Manchester City FC and AEK, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if AEK score 1 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If AEK score less than 1 goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Under". This market is based solely on AEK's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declar…
Kalshi
If the English Premier League imposes a points deduction of at least 50 points in the Premier League on Manchester City, as officially announced before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.